Obama krijgt waarschijnlijk zijn tweede termijn, maar met veel liefde zal het niet gaan. In plaats van de enthousiaste meute die in 2008 stond te popelen om de nieuwe belofte in het Witte Huis te krijgen, moet Obama vechten voor iedere stem. Daarna zal hij vier jaar lang in de loopgraven moeten doorbrengen om zijn hervormingen uit zijn eerste termijn veilig te stellen.
“Bailouts, AIG bonuses, stimulus, health care, cap and trade, taxes. All of the above. Bottom line, Obama and the Democrats inherited an anxious America. One that was willing to give the Democrats a shot at fixing things, but was terrified about the next shoes that could drop. And, in the end, what they saw from Congress was, well, more shoes. What they wanted was a vision for how this country was going to get back on track economically. And, despite talk from many top Democrats, including the president, that they just needed better messaging, it was the message itself that was the problem — not the fact that they didn’t sell it well enough.”
– Rick Klein in The Note
Back from my holidays in Morocco and Spain (it was fun, thank you – we sorta followed the ‘Moorish Trail’), and lo and behold! Barack Obama no longer seems to be in the lead. As the electoral college polls over at the (pro-GOP) Realclearpolitics.com and (more neutral) Fivethirtyeight.com websites show, John McCain has closed the gap. Obama needs to get worried.
The reasons why Obama is losing? It ain’t rocket science:
- He has not been able to convince voters that he’s made of the right stuff.
- People doubt him.
- He’s black. (Well, sorta.) Which doesn’t help, not in the USA anyway.
- They’re Americans; they can’t handle the truth!
In short, the four reasons that have been toiling in the back of my head ever since Obama became the Democratic candidate-in-waiting.
Yesterday, I wrote an article called ‘Deconstructing Obama’. In it, I gave a very short rundown of the only strategy that seems to be left to McCain: go personal. The reason being that Obama has had the initiative since day one, it seems.
But perhaps I was wrong. The tracking polls are starting to show dents in Obama’s armour. Over at Real Clear Politics (I’m always careful with these guys as they’re clearly pro-GOP), the latest rundown of tracking polls shows that although Obama is still leading, the margins seem to be getting smaller, not bigger.
That spells trouble for Obama. Of course, Americans being Americans, I would not be surprised if they once again elect someone who will tear their country even further apart. Because that’s what Republicans do: they pretend to be all Christian morals, but before you know it, they’re out with TV-ads calling people traitors and sodomizing your 3-year-old.
Either way, Obama has not yet been able to close the deal and I’m afraid that that’s because people are still very doubtful of him. Of course, American pigheads being American pigheads, they keep noticing that Obama is black. Perhaps that’s it. It can’t be because of ideological reasons. Because how many average Americans read candidate platforms these days?
I‘ve said from day one, so even before the primaries, that Americans were very capable of electing a carbon copy of George W Bush into office. I also predicted that the election would be very close.
When the new King of Expectation beat the Oracle of Chappaqua, I said I was convinced that any generic Republican would win the election. Now, I’m going back to that position. I’ll be keeping it until Obama truly starts improving his poll numbers and significantly moves away from McCain.
John McCain is destined to be the next nominee for the presidency on behalf of the Republican Party. Many Republicans don’t agree with him leading the pack, but votes are votes and all things being equal, McCain has decisively won most of the states during the Republican primary. And there are a number of traits and advantages that will help McCain in his fight against Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton. But there is also a very strong case against McCain; like Clinton, he carries a lot of negatives. And no, his age isn’t one of them.
Hillary Clinton is going to lose the nomination battle. If not the delegates, then most certainly the Democratic ‘hearts and minds’. Should she win the battle, it will be because what Obama did and got was too little, too late. But once the Democratic convention comes rolling along in 6 months, most Dems won’t want her to lead the party into battle with the Republicans — even if she’s got most delegates. However, it may not even come to that; Obama is getting a LOT of traction as his momentum keeps building, and he just might be able to tip the scale. Clinton may win New York, but if Obama wins California, then that will be the ‘watershed moment’ Team Clinton won’t be able to explain away, much less spin. Then it will be over.
And guess what? Zogby et al are already polling an Obama win in California.
Observing the media coverage of the primary war for the Democratic nomination, I can’t help but watch in amazement how the collective mainstream media press has apparently decided to dance around candidate Barack Obama, singing ‘Kumbaya’ loudly and farting in the general direction of the Clintons and John Edwards in the process. Amazement, because it won’t last.
Right now, any attack by the Clintons (or Edwards, or anybody else for that matter) is either completely ignored, or berated as something close to Pure Evil by the MSM. Whatever Bill Clinton says, it is now ‘racist’ or meant to ‘damage Obama’. Even when Clinton calls Obama’s candidacy so far “a fairy tale”, by which Clinton obviously means the non-critical, out-of-this-world aura the MSM has bestowed upon the Senator from Illinois, Clinton is attacked by hissing snakes. The Obama campaign doesn’t have to do squat.
Sure, now you’re thinking that I believe that Bill Clinton isn’t purposely throwing in the race-thing. Of course he is, but get this: that’s not my point. The point is that if/when Obama (or one of his surrogates) throws in some coded sentence that could be interpreted as racially tinged, but also could not, Obama is left alone.
But whenever Clinton says something that could be racially tinged, oh boy – there comes the Cavalry of the 1st Hypocrites Regiment, stormin’ out Fortress Moral Outrage!
Yet what I want to know is: will the press corps still defend Obama against the attack of Republican X during the general election campaign? Will the same press people hiss and harr-umph against a Republican campaign surrogate if/when he says that Obama may have a hidden agenda? Will the same press corps storm out of the fortress again to bash the GOP candidate?
Of course they won’t. As with every long-winded campaign, the dynamics in this campaign will have changed as well within three months or so. Why? Because journalists are human, believe it or not.
It isn’t often that one gets to see an example of hatred that is so blinding that spouters of political bile jump into a trap with eyes wide open. Yet that is the case with the right-wing extremists who have thrown themselves like a pack of howling wolves onto Graeme Frost and his family. Like hideous vampires mad for blood who have found a new born baby in its crib, Michelle Malkin, Rush Limbaugh and the other Undead are feasting on middle-class flesh while their hideous laughter and screaming fills the humid air. But all this time they don’t realise that many, many people who identify with the Frosts are learning a valuable lesson: the right-wing extremists of the GOP hate white, middle-class American familes.